The War in Tigrai: Premeditated or Spontaneous; Facts and Indicators.

G. Amare, February 6, 2021

This piece describes and presents the nature, scope, and target of the ongoing war in Tigrai. It intends to present selected facts and indicators used to refute the claim made by the illegitimate Ethiopian PM, Abiy Ahmed, that he had launched the war in response to an attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces by the Tigray Regional Government.

“Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth” (Buddha).

Let me first share a few cases that I have extracted from media outlets to aware readers on how the Amhara chauvinists’ level of hatred against the people of Tigrai is not only at its highest peak, but their discourses and actions reflect how greedy, egoistic, insane, savage and morally decayed they are. The following four cases are self-evident and worthy of sharing.

Case 1: Rejoicement and cheering up over the savagery killing of Ambassador Syoum Mesfin, Abay Tsehaye, and Asmelash Woldeselassie (RIP, the people of Tigrai owe you life-long respect and honor for your selfless sacrifice). These three veteran TPLF politicians were elderly and non-combatant, their health compromised, and physically incapable of fighting and protecting themselves. Asmelash Woldeselassie was blind and amputee. Their killing was painful and saddening because it didn’t give any sense to a normal person. Displaying their remains on social media has shown nothing but Abiy Ahmed’s and stooges’ cultural insanity, immorality, and inhumanity.

Case 2: Displaying Sebhat Nega in front of cameras in handcuffs is another case of stupidity. Imagine, Sebhat Nega is 84-year-old and seen to have difficulty walking without support. Abiy and his stooges conspired and intended to cause psychological pain, suppression, humiliation, and subjugation of the people of Tigrai. However, this was a drama play that had unequivocally shown nothing but Abiy Ahmed’s and stooges’ wrongful, idiocy, irrational, childish, and myopic behaviors.

Case 3: Daniel Kibret’s controversial statement regarding the war in Tigrai has reflected his satanic mission. Daniel Kibret claims himself as a deacon and follower of the Ethiopian orthodox church but nothing of his behavior reflects such a claim. He not only lied that Eritrean troops are in Tigray but also shockingly, openly, and unashamedly stated on Media, in Amharic, which partly and roughly is transcribed as,“ …the population of Tigray is about 5 to 6 million….out of this, the trouble makers are estimated to be about a million…..so it is a blessing and necessary decision to wage the ongoing war in Tigrai and kill this group (a million) to bring peace….” This has proven nothing but Daniel Kibret’s satanic, cruel, hateful, cursed, and conspiratorial behaviors and suffering from personality disorders with a pattern of poor thinking. (Watch Digital Weyane on YouTube, let’s face the truth (in Amharic) streamed on January 31, 2021).

Case 4: Ustath Jemal Beshir openly made a foolish statement, on Media, to justify the legitimacy of the ongoing war in Tigrai. His statement is roughly transcribed as “… ongoing killings are occurring all over the country (Ethiopia)…the population of Ethiopia is roughly 120 million….let’s assume that about a million people have lost their lives….Praise be to ALLAH…Ethiopia still will have a remaining of 119 million people alive.…The death of one million people is nothing compared to the 119 million….” This proves nothing but Abiy Ahmed’s blind supporters’ poor judgment, imprudent, irresponsible, barbaric, and immoral personalities without fear of God/Allah (Watch Digital Weyane on YouTube, let’s face the truth (in Amharic) streamed on January 31, 2021).

Declaration of the War

Abiy Ahmed waged the war against Tigrai on November 4, 2020. Per his claim, the war was launched in response to an attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces by the Tigrai Regional Government. Government media and diehard supporters, activities, and propagandists of the prosperity party, inside and outside of Ethiopia, have worked 24/7 to unrelentingly disseminate and portray the claim in an organized manner to convince and confuse the international community. The war was also deliberately labeled as a “law enforcement operation” to intentionally bewilder, prevent and/or delay foreign interference, actions, and interventions. In reality, the war is malicious and willful and intrusion upon peace.

The international communities seem adamant to cite the government’s claim as a reference in their statements and discourses. I don’t blame them because the Ethiopian illegitimate PM has intentionally fed them with one side of the story. This has resulted in the asymmetry of information and knowledge regarding the true cause and genesis of the war. However, concluding by taking the PM’s claim as true and legitimate, is not expected from logical and unbiased media, organizations and individuals. An independent investigation and research with a genuine effort to either validate or refute the claim become reasonable and necessary for the sake of justice, legality, impartial judgment, and moral principles. To know whether or not the all-out war in Tigrai is “spontaneous response” or “premeditated” requires nothing more than a moral compass and integrity to stand with truth and to remain free of any potential conflict of interests and collusions.

For clarity, it would be relevant to provide the dictionary definition of “spontaneous response” vs “premeditated” to suit the context. An act is considered a “spontaneous response” when it occurs suddenly without being planned and on the spur of the moment in response to an action of an opposing force. “Premeditated”, on the other hand, is an act characterized by fully conscious willful intent and a measure of forethought and planning and requires careful identification, solicitation, and procurement of necessary weapons, and analysis of human, material, and financial resources visa vis a competitor’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.

Taking the complexity, range of scopes, and targets of the ongoing war in Tigrai into consideration, it is naïve to assume this war has emerged spontaneously. The scope and target of the ongoing war are of an immeasurable nature and magnitude. The facts on the ground Do Not support the illegitimate PM’s claim that the war was launched in response to an attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.

Of course, the ongoing war is not a “law enforcement operation” by all measures. The war is a first of its kind. It is a kind of war that is hard to imagine and explain. The world is now witnessing morally corrupt chauvinists and defense forces (Ethiopian and Eritrean) committing heartbreaking and mind-boggling crimes and human sufferings or deaths on a large scale. They are indiscriminately, inhumanly, and savagely strangulating, starving, killing, and displacing the people of Tigrai. They are looting and confiscating Tegarus’ properties and livestock. They are committing premeditated and malice aforethought crimes and physical harms, mass killings, gang rapes, and sexual assaults that are causing unseen physical, mental and psychological traumas, humiliations, and desperations not only to victims but also to their families and the society as a whole.

Think about this and put yourself in the victims’ shoes for a moment, perhaps it would be easy to feel and understand the level of harm and trauma. How do you feel when your wife is raped in front of you? How do you feel when your daughter is gang-raped in front of you (mother and father)? What do you think happens when you are ordered and forced to have sex with your family member? How do you feel when your religious places are disgraced, priests are maltreated and killed, monks disrespected, and virgin nuns and underage girls raped?

The ongoing war has been launched with the clear intention to bring the destruction of Tigrai and annihilation of its people. The plan constitutes a multipronged approach. It is occurring in a coordinated and systematic manner. Its scope is off limit. It involves a tremendous amount of resources: human, material, and time. It is all-encompassing aggression that involves armed human waves (estimated over half a million) composed of Ethiopia’s defense forces, militias, and special forces; and foreign countries: Eritrea and Federal Republic of Somalia backed by United Arab Emirates’ drones. All fighting against the people of Tigrai. The war utilizes starvation, psychological war, diplomacy, economic influence, and dissemination of false information and fake news as ways and means to fortify the war that by itself is sustaining heavy damages employing sophisticated technologies, air bombardments, heavy ranged and lethal weapons, drone strikes, and tracer ammunition. Starvation is being used as a means to subjugate the people and give up their hope; the people are being denied access to health services and are suffering from different diseases conditions and dying without help, and gang-raping is common and seen inflicting physical and psychological traumas. Various techniques are in use to influence the values and beliefs of the people. The war must be understood in the context of its social, cultural, economic, human, moral, political, physical, and psychological impacts.

The target of the war is not discrete to the action of armed conflict and not limited to combatant militaries. Massive civilians and non-combatant members have been targeted and massacred. The people’s psychological and social makeups are being targeted and damaged. They are being subjected to intentional humiliations, subjugations, and demoralization. Houses, churches, mosques, historical heritages, and infrastructures have been bombed and destroyed, factories dismantled and looted, crops torched, and livestock killed.

In short, it is impossible to declare a war of this kind without thoughtful preplanning and strategy. Thus, the war waged against Tigrai is a premeditated one but surely not a spontaneous response as claimed when it was initially declared and started using “law enforcement operation” as a pretext.

Indicators and Facts to Refute Abiy Ahmed’s Claim

The following selected indicators and facts are enough to justify that the ongoing war in Tigray is premeditated type:

1. On September 17, 2018, an agreement was signed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia by the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afeworki. This agreement is obscure until today. It lacks transparency, made in a clandestine environment. The intent of the agreement was not publicly shared and approved by constituents of both countries. Based on what is happening in Tigrai (the all-out war), three years after the agreement, many are speculating that the agreement was made to facilitate the interests of Abiy’s and Isaias’ patrons. In return, Abiy and Isaias would gain guarantee and support to conspire and fight against a common mortal enemy-the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) which is considered as an obstacle towards implementing their evil projects and personal egos.

2. Ethiopia's illegitimate PM, Abiy Ahmed, had visited Eritrea’s Sawa Military Training Centre on July 19, 2020, accompanied by President Isaias Afeworki and high military officials. This was followed by the Eritrean President’s visit, on October 14, 2020, to the Ethiopian Air Force base located in the town of Bishoftu where the Abiy Ahmed in the end tweeted “My visit today confirmed the Ethiopian Air Force is a national pride…. demonstrable technological capability and readiness....” I don’t think there would be any reason for two sovereign countries to share their military intelligence unless they both have an interest to attack a common enemy as one.

3. The president of Eritrea, Isaias Afeworki, collaborator and main actor of the war in Tigrai, during an interview with the Eritrean TV, once had clearly stated that he will not remain seated aloof but rather would directly get involved and interfere to balkanize Ethiopia. Mind you, he said this a year or two before the ongoing war started. Isaias got involved in the war openly and fully.

4. There exists evidence of audio record that has exposed the secret meeting arranged by Isaias’ agents where they shared their conspiracies, plans, steps and actions to be taken to end the existence of TPLF, to indiscriminately remove Tegarus, or force them to retire early from any federal positions (civil and military) and subject them to systematic and targeted killings. Such a clandestine discussion had been secretly recorded, widely circulated, and shared. There is speculation that the killings of General Seare Mekonnen Ethiopia's army chief of staff and a retired Major General Gizae Aberra, are measures taken to avoid any resistance in pursuing their (Abiy and Isaias) ulterior motives which constitute part of the initial phase of the war.

5. Ethiopia’s illegitimate PM, Abiy Ahmed, who is the commander-in-chief of the Ethiopian security forces, once openly said on TV, “…youths may die, mothers may cry, and villages may set on fire” and added, “…we are prepared, more than ever before, to take any action and deter any efforts….” He said this in response to TPLF’s decision and plan to carry out elections in Tigrai, per the timetable stipulated within the constitution, while the federal government initially had shown no willingness and readiness to run elections and then, later used COVID-19 as an excuse to indefinitely extend the election to stay in power. If this doesn’t indicate Abiy’s concealed intent to wage war, then what is it?

6. On 16 January, Gen. Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman al-Burhan, a Sudanese Army general disclosed the fact that he had agreed with the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, to close the Sudanese borders to block any infiltration and movement of TPLF fighters. Though this information lacks specificity, it gives a clue that there exists an agreement made before waging the war against Tigrai and this hints the fact that the war was premeditated.

7. Commissioner Abere Adamu revealed the fact [“…how the Amhara regional state had already done [its] homework and deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night after we had already completed our preparations. …. Amhara region police and Temsgen Tiruneh, president of the Amhara Region, already knew that this thing was going to happen. The war started that night after we have already completed our preparations…. We had communication with those whom we had close relations, especially with those members of the ENDF Mechanized Forces stationed near Humera; …When I and the Assistant commissioner Biset say “according to what we discussed” we understand what we were saying. So, he told me “things are going as we discussed.” What it meant was to make members of the steel-clad mechanized Special Forces come to us under the protection of our Special Forces, and after they reached us, to command them to turn back to face the enemy. So, he asked me “they are coming, what do I do with them?” So, I told him to divert them back to face the enemy; he did it. The armored mechanized members that we provided protection and retrieved from there protected our forces and the foot soldiers marched in. You all know what happened next. This is how the war started; this was the day”] (Addis Standard, 04.01.2021). This narration of facts serves as irrefutable proof that the ongoing war in Tigrai is a premeditated one but not a spontaneous war waged in response to an attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces by the Tigray Regional Government the night before November 4, 2020.

8. On September 5, 2020, Adem Farah, speaker of the House of Federation, in an extraordinary session presented the agenda to pass the decision that the Tigrai Regional State election has no constitutional acceptance, and the result is null and void. Adam Farah, during his exclusive interview with ENA on October 8, 2020, disclosed the steps to be taken by the federal government, to ban Tigrai’s legislature and executive body and establish an interim administration accountable to the federal government. The clearly stated the measure to be taken such as engaging the Federal Police and the Defense Forces. This shows that there existed well-planned preparations before waging the war against Tigrai.

9. A Federal road to Tigrai has been blocked for years before the ongoing war in Tigai started; the budget has been reduced to weaken Tigrai's economic development. The federal government has barred investors from going to Tigrai to invest. The Federal government deliberately failed to help when Tigrai was struggling against the worst locust swarm invasion. This constitutes part of the war plan.

10. Hate and defamation campaigns and negative propaganda targeting TPLF and the people of Tigrai were extensively and widely poured out and sowed for years. This has grown to bully, ridiculing, name-calling, social avoidance, de-humanization, and belittling; then to economic, political, employment, and housing discrimination and disparities in criminal justice; and now escalated to a total war where murder, gang-raping, assault, vandalism, desecration, and starvation and death due to health complications are widely seen; and genocide is taking place with the act or intent to deliberately and systematically annihilate the entire people of Tigrai. The people of Tigrai are desperately crying for urgent help from the international communities without delay, now not tomorrow.

In sum, the aforementioned indicators and facts are sufficient to refute Abiy Ahmed’s claim that he had launched the war in response to an attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces by the Tigray Regional Government. This claim doesn’t hold water. It is impossible to declare a war of this magnitude and nature suddenly without thoughtful preplanning and strategy. It is rather a premeditated war. The phrase “law enforcement operation” is used as a pretext to deliberately mislead and misinform the international community.

Tigrai will prevail!!