Action vs. the Confuse and Convince Recipe
By Aesop
11/13/2020
We are hearing a barrage of Tigrigna pleas by Derg 2.0’s leader to the Tigrean people. We also heard a plea by Birhanu Nega (also in Tigrigna). One can only reiterate the old saying that: ACTION SPEAKS LOUDER THAN WORDS!! Everybody knows why Derg 2.0 (2018-2020) and Birhanu Nega (Derg 3.0?) are using the Tigrigna language. These losers are not interested in communicating with Tigreans for at least two reasons.
(1). Why would you disable Tigreans’ access to telecommunication, electricity, and the internet and expect to hear your Tigrigna message in national TV? You would not bomb their only source of electric power vis-a-viz their only means to hear what you have to say if you really cared about their opinion! (2) The world knows that Amharic and Tigrigna are both Semitic languages. Tigreans can hear Amharic- which is Ethiopia’s national language. And, as far as Birhanu Nega’s Tigrigna mumbling goes one can only ask him the following: “Was it not your media, ESAT, that called for 95 million Ethiopian people to eliminate 5 million Tigreans a few years ago?” The North Remembers! Never in their history have Tigreans respected folks who do not walk their talk!
Dergites are trying to convince their bodyguards that they are humane and are on a certain trajectory towards a decisive victory. We understand their desperate plight because these individuals (ordinary persons) need to convince their bodyguards that they are going to prevail. Otherwise, these bodyguards will turn against them just like Cabilla’s guards.
Most people wonder why Abiy Ahmed keeps on declaring victory when the reality on the ground is the opposite. They wonder why he appears on the camera lying that he occupied this province, this town, or that city of Tigrai. These are naïve folks who overlook the consequence of him telling the truth. What will happen to him if he confesses the truth? If he admits that thousands of soldiers have refused to fight, have become prisoners of war, or are disserting him, he will face the situation that confronted Mengistu. His deputies (military or otherwise) will no longer follow him. They might even topple him. That is why this novice dictator needs to declare “victory” every dawn, without rest!
Yes! In the real world, action does still speak louder than words. Even when Derg 2.0 declares all-round victory from Addis, the military sees the reality on the ground. That is why we hear about the intra-military conflicts in Bahir Dar, in Gondar, and the frontlines. His military does not want to play a losing game. Derg 2.0 is purging its own military, including the top brass and politicians we heard about. Regardless, it needs to continue preaching “victory” because it also wants to avoid popular revolution. Derg 2.0 hangs on the support of handful talking heads (not journalists) having access to popular media. The support of these individuals (not people) hinges on Derg 2.0’s undisputed victory. We all know these individuals and their followers turned against Derg 1.0 (1974-91) in a heartbeat as soon as they realized their leader fled to Zimbabwe in 1991. They all started calling him a butcher until his successor took over in 2018. So, Derg 2.0 wants to avoid Derg 1.0’s fate by rectifying its shortcomings, i.e., by “confusing and convincing” (per Shimeles) as many people as possible, especially Derg 1.0 admirers, for as long as it takes!
Derg 2.0 leaders would have fared well preaching prosperity in mega churches. They should have known not to intervene in the political affairs of an ancient civilization no superpower could subdue. Now, they find themselves trapped in the hands of Isaias. A two-year-old dictator should not have tried the “confuse and convince” recipe on a three-decade old dictator. Derg 2.0 is now under Isaias’s control. Isaias is prepping to dictate Ethiopia as he dictated Eritrea. Any Ethiopian who expects Isaias not to dictate Ethiopia’s affairs after saving Abiy is a fool! Isaias already said that he has learned from history and will not repeat the mistake he made with “Weyane”. That is why we see anti-Weyane politicians like Lidetu in jail: they opposed Isaias’s intervention in Ethiopian affairs. Of course, Isaias is also afflicted with Weyane Alzheimer-that decisive defeat he suffered back in 2000.
