For how much comedy do we have to laugh before the war ends?

Kalayu Abrha

12-25-21

In fact, I have no reason and am left with little energy inside me to laugh at a time when my people are being hunted by human hound-dogs from every direction. However, I always untie my knotted nerves thanks to the stupidity of the tormentors of the people of Tigray who either lack the skills or don't mind organizing their official falsehoods in a logical and consistent manner. Making people believe falsehoods requires great skills. These people are amateurs! We know they are not the best available politicians; but they are the trickiest and foolhardiest ever! What they want is people to applause them. See the naïve smile on the face of Shimeles Abdissa in response to the applause and laughter of the audience when he mocked the USA for its “blighted wheat” without any sense of responsibility and respect for the democratic world power. USA realized that for Ethiopia AGOA could be blighted too. (lol). It’s understandable for America to feel hurt by the ungrateful lashing out in ignorance. Of course, that was not the main reason for the cancellation of AGOA; it was because Ethiopia became infatuated with Nobel-awarded genocide perpetrators.

These are the kinds of leaders Ethiopia is glorifying! Maybe it is true that “people get the leaders they deserve”. In view of the great leaders hard-hit Tigray is awarded with the truth of the proverb is confirmed. On the morrow of humorous lies and denials always comes embarrassment; and thus, forcing them to lie again contradicting their previous lies. Sometimes they make contradictory statements in the same speech and go away with it. This happens when the audience is blindly in love with the lying politicians, or it is scared of retaliation following any unwelcome comments. The former is the most likely reason concluding from experiences of recent politics in Ethiopia. The falsehood often emanates from the urge to hide defeat in the battle and/or the diplomatic field. The rate of reproduction of lies and denials is so high that when analysts handle one today four or more may come up the next day. I am sure I cannot address all of them in this tiny article; the task is undoubtedly Herculean. Let me focus on the latest and the most laughable.

These are two lies from the chief executive. Should I call them lies? More appropriately, they are intentional public deceptions with full awareness of the truth. The first of the two goes like this:

“ The people of Tigray are traitors. We don't want to continue fighting deep in Tigray because they will repeat their betrayal to our military disadvantage. First they demanded that the Northern Command stay put in Tigray to protect them; later on, they slaughtered it”.

This statement talks volumes. Why did the people of Tigray demand the Northern Command to stay put in Tigray? We are advised not to forget the Sumerians let alone a very recent history of the couple of years before the November 2020 blitzkrieg over Tigray. The Command was in Tigray because the border with Eritrea- “the problem child of the Horn” -is situated in Tigray's northern limit. It is an Ethiopian defense, not intended for Tigray alone, as the PP officials later lied about. For twenty odd years the border was guarded by the Command at the order of the EPRDF government, which included those guys now in power. The military policy of Ethiopia identified Eritrea as an enemy state. When the two tyrants of the two states started the mysterious courting and frequent dating everyone mistook it for a peace deal. Soon Tigray leaders were suspicious that something was brewing against them and against Tigray. The vapor started to turn into water and the new guys at Arat-Kilo decided to remove any armed barrier against Eritrea from the border.

The withdrawal of the Northern Command from Tigray was scary for Tigray because Eritrea may invade it in the absence of the Command. Tigray never suspected that Eritreans will be invited by the Ethiopian government to invade Tigray. So, they demanded the Command to remain in Tigray. The Northern Command, as a matter of fact the entire Ethiopian Defense force, was the brainchild of TPLF! Hence, there was no question about belongingness in Tigray. When it comes to the very survival of Tigray the Mosaic law of “Love thy enemy” does have no value. When the Northern Command was prepared to be instrumental in the invasion of Tigray by no other than the Eritrean army Tigray had to save itself. Abel was not aware of Cain's intention to kill him. He could have made the preemptive strike on Cain. Tigray was too wise to be Abel. This is the truth about the alleged “betrayal”. Not taking about individuals because there are plenty of them, the people of Tigray don't betray. They are betrayed more often than not. It is their quick wit that saved them.

The second deliberate public deception is stated as follows: “ We tried to free Tigrayans from terrorist TPLF; now we have decided to let them fight the TPLF on their own.” First of all, the most honest reason for the decision of the ENDF not to follow the TDF into Tigray territory is the fear that the Ethiopian army will most likely be decimated again. Several huge defeats in the Amhara region have inoculated dread in the ENDF commanders and the chief himself. The Army was irreparably destroyed in Tembien with around 8k war prisoners taken by the young and ill armed TDF. Now the TDF has evolved, in a matter of few months, into an invincible force. It is well known to the PP chief that much worse will happen this time which could bring his regime to its end. This is a face-saving statement but the choice is far from being smart. It is rather funny because it is only the fool who would entertain such a ridiculous wishful thinking that the people are crazy enough to fight against their own Guardian Angel. Does he really believe what he is saying? He doesn't. It is the people of Ethiopia he enchanted with his demagoguery that believe it from the bottom their hearts! Thanks God! You gave me something to laugh about hilariously.

Abiy and his associates have rightly realized that continuing the war will render a huge counter blow to them. They seem to have decided to take a bite of the loaf of bread if they cannot eat all of it. Such pragmatism may be a  “better late than never” even if that is not going to ensure their power grip for long enough. Their decision to stop fighting the TDF is intended to save their necks from the wrath of the International Community which has already taken toll. In practice, they are trying to push into Tigray while blindfolding the International Community with the false promises of halting the advance into Tigray. They are using two spoons. If the re-invasion of Tigray succeeds, they will throw away the “spoon of ceasefire” and resume their usual disregard for international law. What is hard to comprehend for an ordinary mind like myself is why the international community believes what they say when it has ample experiences about how much they lie, deny, and deceive. In a course I had on diplomacy the professor said bluntly: “Diplomacy means lying!”. “Oh, My God” I said then. Many years later I saw it in practice. Is this how the world is rotating and revolving 24/365? It must be only in Ethiopia. If it were the whole world that were lying to each other all through the Planet could have turned into a flaming desert like Mecury. Abiy and his associates are not dead serious about the cease-fire not on their own terms but on that of the political force that is on the driver-seat of politics in Ethiopia.

Abiy is just like a tamed lion whose roar is more powerful than his elbow. The real power in Ethiopia lies in the hands of the Amhara elite and their sedated, rewarded, or frightened entourage from the multiple ethnic minorities. The latter know very well that they will be next after Tigray, but they have chosen a temporary peace than a costly proaction to save the hard-won self-rule. The PP Oromos are reluctant members of the entourage, who sometimes test their political muscles against their Amhara associates to little lasting effect. When the going gets tough the PP Oromos very quickly reverse their pace. Shimeles Abdissa is my favourite hero in the dictionary. His early public speeches were violently anti-Amhara rule of the past. After he was honored in Bahir Dar he has become as timid as the cat frequenting statements that his Amhara bosses/associates would love to hear. Other lost cases of the Oromo are Taye Dendea and Adanech Abeibei. Now, a critical stage is reached after TDF willingly withdrew from Amhara and Afar in response to the call by the international community for both sides to refrain from spreading the war to other parts of Ethiopia. TDF won a decisive victory on the diplomatic arena putting “Abiyosphere” in a huge dilemma.

The Amhara “Knighthood” nicknamed Fano is determined to pursue TDF into extinction in order to ensure the permanency of the annexation of Western and Southern Tigray for Amhara region; for Gondar region to be more exact! Abiy, temporary or permanent no matter, is protected by international diplomacy. He seems to be confident that with some sort of compromise with the TPLF he can retain his premiership. Tigray does not mind about who sits in the Menilik palace as long as its basic demands are met. It does not intend to manage the unmanageable Ethiopia ever again! This is not the foxy “grapes are sour” as the Abiyosphere prefers to think. Unfortunately, the toxic propaganda of the Abiyosphere is accusing TPLF of something which it would and should never contemplate capturing the Menilik throne. There is no spare seat. Menilik is back on his throne, though not breathing. (lol). The false propaganda has helped them to mobilize millions into a human wave severely testing the humanity of the TDF.

The Amhara elite and their armed wing-the Fano- are at odds with Abiyosphere. This is the cliff-edge of politics in Ethiopia this week. Abiyosphere cannot survive without support from the de-facto rulers of Ethiopia. His position as a de-jure head of government does not at all enable him to exercise his prerogatives. Unless otherwise Abiy stops playing hide and seek with the International Community and stands firm for peace against the Amhara odds, he would be taking too many risks that he cannot brush off by his tiresome oratory. The Amhara elite locked their wedding gowns with that of Isaias'. Isaisas wants the Amhara market via Wolkait. Isaias wants to finish off Tigray in fear of retaliation from the TDF. The Amhara/ Gondar economic and political elite want Wolkait badly. They are also determined to destroy Tigray to rule out any “future relapse of Woyane power”. The common denominator between Isaias and the Amhara/Gondar elite is very clear. The denominator is not of much interest to Abiyosphere. He has lost the bulk of the ENDF he commands due to his great folly, in which he counted his chicks before hatching. He does not want to sleep facing the direction Tigray is located let alone go there and touch it. By today, Ethiopia has two leaders. The Fano command and the Abiy cabinet.

I will start laughing the moment the two start to fight. Can Abiy defeat Isaias and his fano allies? Yes, he can; only if he officially declares the removal of Eritrean troops and security operatives from every part of Ethiopia and mainly from Tigray. He can request for international support for this. If he does, USA will for sure fire 10 of its cruise missiles at Adi Hello. Game Over!! The Fano will be a piece of cake to be left for the TDF to swallow.