It seems almost certain that Ethiopia is heading towards a cataclysmic turn of events—and sooner rather than later. Tensions are rising on a daily basis as triple threats of ethnic and  religious conflict along with power struggles threaten to crack the foundation of the constitutional order and perhaps the integrity of the state itself.

Like boxers posturing in their corners, Ethiopia’s political actors have volubly expressed their vision of what the country should look like. The crowd of political parties, old and new, have used social and traditional media to express their ideas—albeit many times lacking in much detail and primarily oppositional.

The Prime Minster stands in his corner surrounded by a coterie of advisors from far flung corners of the world—Washington, D.C., Asmara, Riyadh and Dubai. His vision is shaped by a plethora of interests, his own and some external, far away from his predecessors’ revolutionary democracy.

Building on the boxer metaphor, there is an empty corner in the ring cloaked in mystery—the Ethiopian military. Should conflict escalate, what role will the Ethiopian Defense Forces play given all the uncertainty blanketing the country? Will the upcoming election, announced to take place in August, set off a chain of events where the military has to decide whose side it is on? And, depending upon its response, what will that mean for a post-election Ethiopia?
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