Strategies to nullify Abiy’s agenda of subduing Tigrai

Berhane Kahsay

12-28-19

Ethiopia’s current trajectory is worrisome and appears to be entering unchartered territories that could tip it to Yugoslavia type political upheavals which culminated in the complete break-up of the East European Country. In January 1992, the Socialist Republic of Yugoslavia ceased to exist having fractured into various independent states, and according to International Centre for Transitional Justice, the destructive war that spanned from 1991 until 1995 consumed the lives of 140,000 people.

In Ethiopia, the effect of an all-out strife will certainly be very much higher than Yugoslavia with death tolls likely to run into hundreds and thousands. The Gedeo-Oromo ethnic clashes alone caused the displacement of 820,000 people from their homes in Gedeo; and 150,000 from West Guiji zone of Oromia not long after the installation of Abiy Ahmed in April 2018 (Source: International Organisation for Migration). And the recent Oromo-Somali discords instigated by officials on both sides made it possible for over a million Oromos to be expelled from Jigjiga and its environs. The number of fatalities reported by independent bodies were significantly more than the official figures released by Abiy Ahmed, who is in the habit of misleading the populace by down-playing the severity and level of such calamities which occur in various parts of the country on daily basis.

Moreover, each region has its own special forces and if serious hostilities were to break-out, especially between Amhara and Tigrai, the outcome is certain to precipitate huge casualties in the vicinity and beyond. Our neighbours south of the border, who claim Raya and Wolkayit as theirs contrary to historically evidence, have been threatening to take Tigrian lands by force, and if this was to materialises, it would certainly end in a humiliating and comprehensive defeat. It helps to remind our neighbours and others that, Tigrai, the home of the brave, single-handedly defeated one of the largest armies in Africa, and if necessary, it still has what it takes to secure a resounding victory once again.

Other factors that could potentially cause serious discords and jeopardise the unison of Ethiopia included the circulations of illegal weapons throughout the country and the wanton and recurring torching of churches and mosques in Oromia and Amhara regions. Only two days ago, 4 mosques were burnt-down in Mota, Gojjam causing huge hostile demonstrations in various parts of the country by followers of Islam. There has been a mute response from the government, and no doubt, there will be a tit-for-tat retaliation giving the opportunity for the extremist Wahabian sect in Saudi Arabia to interfere and inflame the situation further.

A cocktail of ethnic conflicts, anarchy, and religious dissonances will sooner or later cause the powder keg to detonate taking the whole country with it. The presence of media which are devoid of broadcasting ethics are funning the tension by disseminating ethnic-spiked hate in the same way as Radio Mille of Rwanda did resulting in the death of a million Tutsis in 100 days. An article by the think-tank group, Foreign Policy , stated that Ethiopia is among the ‘’10 Conflicts to watch in 2020’’……. Afghanistan, Yemen, Burkina Faso, Libya, Kashmir, Venezuela and Ukraine have also been included on the list ( December 26, 2029).

Abiy Ahmed appears to be heightening the already explosive situation in the country by invariably undertaking illegal and unconstitutional measures. Only yesterday, Welayita became the 4 ^th region to be placed under a military command, without going through the due process, because of its demand for the formation of a state in line with Article 47 Part 3 of FDRE constitution. PM Abiy has turned himself into a complete dictator where the army, cabinet, media and the rubber-stamping parliament have come under his full command. Article 87 part 5 of the constitution clearly states that ‘’ The armed forces shall carry out their functions free of partisanship to any political organisation(s). ’’ But this is not the reality now.

Information from reliable sources indicate that the high echelon of the defence force has come under the influence of the newly minted Prosperity Party, and the Deputy Chief of Staff, General Berhanu Jula, is the officer tasked to carry out the indoctrination in contravention of the constitution. This transgression is likely to create a division between Abiy’s followers and the remaining members of the defence force who pledged their allegiance to the constitution. Leaving aside the potential for factional armed clashes, the other implications of the schism would mean that the defence force would not only be unable to guard the nation from foreign enemies, but it would also be hindered from executing its duties in internal emergencies.